AFG Intelligence provides independent, probability-based research, market analysis, and forecasting designed to help participants navigate uncertainty and identify meaningful market signals.
Independent research. Transparent methodology. Measured performance.
A public introduction to AFG research and prediction-market analysis.
✓ Public forecast analysis
✓ Market intelligence updates
✓ Research announcements
GET FREE ACCESSIn-depth probability research and market analysis, including five additional attractive opportunities ranked by Edge Score, for participants seeking a disciplined edge in prediction markets.
✓ Market-Implied Probabilities
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✓ Conviction Ratings
✓ Trade Recommendations
✓ Full Research & Commentary
START AFG RESEARCH — $50/MONTHThe complete AFG intelligence product for subscribers who want the full Top 10 Conviction Table, including AFG's highest-conviction opportunities, trade recommendations, and complete research.
✓ Everything in AFG Research
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✓ Premium research and commentary
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Probability Signals & Market Probabilities
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AFG publishes intelligence every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, giving subscribers access to the latest news, analysis, commentary, and prediction-market research.
AFG Intelligence
The latest AFG research, analysis, and prediction-market intelligence based on the most current information available.
AFG Intelligence
Updated research incorporating new developments, emerging information, market movements, and changes in AFG's outlook.
AFG Intelligence
Updated research incorporating the latest news, analysis, commentary, and developments heading into the weekend.
AFG combines market-implied probabilities, independent research, and disciplined forecasting to identify where the market may be mispriced. Our analysis examines the underlying evidence, weighs competing signals, quantifies uncertainty, and distinguishes genuine probability edges from market noise. Each forecast is expressed as a measurable probability, not a prediction presented as certainty, and evaluated against the realized outcome. This disciplined process is grounded in evidence, transparency, and analytical rigor, with forecasts continuously refined as new information emerges and historical performance provides an objective measure of accuracy. The result is research designed not merely to describe what the market believes, but to assess whether those beliefs are justified by the available evidence.
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Contact AFGResearch Disclaimer: AFG Intelligence provides independent research and analysis for informational and educational purposes only. AFG does not provide financial, investment, or trading advice. Forecasts represent probability assessments rather than guarantees of future outcomes. Prediction-market participation involves risk, including the potential loss of capital.
AFG is an independent research organization and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Kalshi.