AFG Forecasting Methodology

A Disciplined Framework for Probability-Based Intelligence

AFG combines prediction market data, probability analysis, and objective evaluation methods to produce transparent forecasting intelligence.

The AFG Research Process

1. Market Data Collection

AFG analyzes prediction market contracts, pricing signals, trading activity, and available market information to identify forecast opportunities.

2. Probability Analysis

Market prices are interpreted as probability signals and evaluated alongside historical trends, relevant data, and current conditions.

3. Forecast Calibration

Forecast confidence levels are calibrated to reflect uncertainty and improve consistency across different market categories.

4. Performance Evaluation

Forecast outcomes are measured using objective scoring methodologies to evaluate accuracy and improve future models.

AFG Core Principles

Principle One

Data Before Opinion

Principle Two

Probability First

Principle Three

Transparent Evaluation

Forecast Evaluation Framework

Brier Score Analysis

AFG evaluates forecast performance using probability scoring methods designed to measure calibration and accuracy. These measurements allow historical forecasts to improve future decision-making.

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